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本帖最后由 蔚然猫 于 2010-9-12 21:50 编辑
The Iraq war 伊拉克战争
Mission truncated 任务提前终结
A stance that helped Barack Obama and the Democrats to victory has become a near-irrelevance 当初帮助巴拉克•奥巴马及民主党取得胜利的一个立场,现在却已经变得无关紧要了
Sep 2nd 2010 | WASHINGTON, DC

WHEN he ran for president, few subjects distinguished Barack Obama more than his views on the war in Iraq. He had opposed it from the start, so he constantly reminded the electorate, unlike his main rival for the Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton. He was determined to withdraw the majority of American troops from the country within 16 months of coming to office, unlike his Republican opponent, John McCain, who had spoken of American troops being in Iraq for 100 years. All this formed a big part of Mr Obama’s appeal to voters, who were sick of the conflict and dismayed by George Bush’s handling of it. So when Mr Obama declared the fulfilment of his pledge (a little over three months late) and the “end of our combat mission in Iraq” in an address from the Oval Office on August 31st, it should have been a triumphant moment for the president and a cathartic one for the American public. Instead, the speech was a sombre affair, and the popular reaction muted.
竞选总统时,奥巴马对于伊拉克战争的想法是他最为突出的观点。与他的主要竞争对手——民主党提名的希拉里不同,他从最开始就反对这场战争,因此也时常提醒选民。也与他的共和党竞争对手约翰•麦卡恩不同(麦卡恩说美国军队要在伊拉克呆上100年),他已经决定在上任后的16个月内从伊拉克撤回大部分美军。所有这一切都为奥巴马赢得了不少青睐,选民们早已厌倦了乔治•布什操控的这一战争所带来的冲突和失望。因此,8月31日时,奥巴马在他的椭圆办公室内宣布他实现了自己的承诺(只是晚了3个多月),“伊拉克的战斗任务已结束”。此时此刻对于总统来说应该是个胜利的时刻,对于美国人民来说也是如释重负。但发言很沉重,民众很沉默。
In part Mr Obama was simply determined to avoid the mistakes of Mr Bush, who was endlessly lampooned for hopping gleefully out of a fighter jet dressed in a flightsuit in front of a banner reading “Mission Accomplished”, just as Iraq began to sink into a bloody insurgency. As Mr Obama was quick to concede, Iraqi politics are a muddle and “extremists will continue to set off bombs”.
奥巴马如此坚决的一部分原因是为了防止重蹈布什的覆辙,布什经常被狂轰滥炸,说他身穿飞行服欢快的跳出战斗机,战斗机上的横幅“任务结束”历历在目,然而伊拉克已开始陷入血腥的暴动中。奥巴马也很快的承认,伊拉克的政治如一滩烂泥,且“极端主义者仍会继续引爆炸弹”。
It does not help that America’s withdrawal is only partial. Almost 50,000 troops remain in Iraq. In theory their chief mission is to train Iraq’s security forces, but in practice they will still do some fighting, in what Mr Obama called “targeted counterterrorism missions”. So the end of the war may not be apparent to ordinary Americans, despite the change of the mission’s name from “Operation Iraqi Freedom” to “Operation New Dawn”. As Ken Gude of the Centre for American Progress, a think-tank, puts it, “50,000 is not zero.”
虽然美军撤回的只是一部分,但剩下的那5万人也帮不上什么忙。理论上他们的主要任务是培训伊拉克警卫部队,但实际上他们还会参与一些被奥巴马称为“有针对性的反恐任务”的斗争。因此,对于许多美国百姓来说战争的真正结束可能不明显,除了任务行动代号从“伊拉克自由行动”被改为“新黎明行动”外。来自智囊团美国进步中心的肯•古德说:“5万并不是零。”
The impact of Mr Obama’s announcement was further dampened by the fact that he has escalated America’s war effort in Afghanistan even as he removes troops from Iraq. The president acknowledged that after almost ten years of war in Afghanistan, some Americans “are understandably asking tough questions about our mission there”. That is an understatement: although he has tried to distinguish between the “dumb war” in Iraq and the smarter one in Afghanistan, Americans seem to think that getting involved in the latter was also a mistake and are gloomy about its prospects. Justin Ruven of MoveOn.org, a left-leaning activist group that opposes both wars, says his members have “growing misgivings about what feels like a quagmire in Afghanistan”.
奥巴马此项声明的影响却因其加大对阿富汗战争的投入而被进一步削弱,尽管他已开始从伊拉克撤军。总统明白在阿富汗的战争进行了将近十年,他们理解会有一些美国人问一些很难回答的问题,如“我们在阿富汗的情况”。这明显是轻描淡写,尽管他很努力的将伊拉克“愚蠢的战争”与阿富汗聪明的战争区分开来,美国民众仍然不买账,认为参与阿富汗战争同样是个错误且前景不乐观。来自两场战争都反对的左倾活动团体MoveOn.org的贾斯汀•路文,说他的小组成员“越来越担心阿富汗那陷入沼泽般困境的战争”。
In his speech Mr Obama reiterated a promise to start reducing the number of soldiers in Afghanistan by next July and to remove all American forces from Iraq by the end of 2011. But Americans now consider Mr Obama and his fellow Democrats marginally less reliable on the subject of Iraq than Republicans, according to Rasmussen Reports—a dramatic reversal from just a couple of years ago. Scott Rasmussen, the firm’s boss, cautions that this finding may simply reflect a broader swing towards the Republicans, rather than shifting views on Iraq itself. But that is scant consolation to Democratic candidates facing difficult races at the mid-term elections in November.
在演讲中,奥巴马重申明年7月会开始减少驻阿富汗的美军数量,且截至2011年末,他将撤回全部驻伊拉克的美军。然而拉斯穆森公司的报告显示,美国民众现在认为奥巴马及其民主党在伊拉克这一方面有些不如共和党可信,几年前的态度可是完全相反。这家公司的老板斯科特•拉斯穆森提醒,调查结果仅能说明更多选民向共和党偏移,而不代表他们对伊拉克战争的观念有所改变。面对11月中期选举的激烈竞争,民主党候选人从这中也得不到什么安慰。
Mr Ruven of MoveOn.org argues that had Mr Obama not fulfilled his pledge to withdraw troops from Iraq, he and his fellow Democrats would be in even deeper trouble than they already are. He concedes that some Democratic activists have been turned off by Mr Obama’s enthusiasm for the war in Afghanistan, which will probably have some impact on both turnout and fund-raising. But he does not believe that many people, on the left or the right, will cast their vote in the mid-terms based on their views of the two wars. It is the economy that will galvanise them.
来自MoveOn.org的路文先生认为,若奥巴马没有实现其从伊拉克撤军的承诺,他和他的民主党将会陷入比现在更大的麻烦中。他承认一些热情的民主党支持分子对于奥巴马极为热衷于阿富汗战争这件事非常不感兴趣,这有可能影响到投票和筹款。但他不认为许多人——无论左翼还是右翼——会在中期选举时以对两场战争的立场为根据来投票。经济才是他们最在乎的。
Many Americans, it is true, are simply no longer interested in either conflict. Just 40% rated the war in Iraq as “very important” in a Rasmussen survey last month, for example, and just 41% thought the war in Afghanistan was, compared with 85% who felt that way about the economy. In May 2008, in contrast, when Mr Obama was running for president, 58% of people judged Iraq to be very important. Anxiety about the war has been declining since August 2008, according to Rasmussen, when America’s financial system began to seize up and the severity of the recession became clear. Iraq has sunk to number ten on voters’ list of priorities, the polling firm finds, behind such issues as immigration, education and “government ethics”.
事实上,很多美国人对哪一场战争都不感兴趣了。上个月的一份拉斯穆森调查显示,只有40%的人认为伊拉克战争“非常重要”,与85%认为经济非常重要的人相比,认为阿富汗战争很重要的人只有41%。相比之下,2008年5月奥巴马竞选总统时,支持伊拉克战争的人数为58%。拉斯穆森表示,自从2008年8月以来,美国金融系统出现危机,经济衰退日益严重,人们对于战争的焦虑就已减弱了。民调公司发现,在选民优先事项的列表中,伊拉克问题已经退到了第10名,落后于移民、教育及“政风”等问题。
“The Iraq war is no longer the driver of American politics,” says Mr Gude. Mr Obama himself implied as much by shifting subjects halfway through his address from the two wars to the state of the economy. “Our most urgent task,” he said, “is to restore our economy, and put the millions of Americans who have lost their jobs back to work.” The withdrawal from Iraq should help with that, he suggested, by freeing funds that were previously being spent on the war.
“伊拉克战争不再是美国政治的驱动力了,”古德先生说。这从奥巴马本身就可以看出来,他半路将政治重点从两场战争转到了经济状况上。“我们最紧迫的任务”,他说,“就是恢复我们的经济,并使成千上万失业的美国人重新上岗。”他建议到从伊拉克撤兵可以帮助恢复经济,因为可以动用之前用于战争的资金。
The fact that the president felt obliged to raise the dire state of the economy in a speech about his military successes neatly illustrates the political significance of the public’s waning interest in Iraq and Afghanistan. The two wars may not cost the Democrats many votes, but they will not corrode Republican support and galvanise the left as they have done in the past two elections. One of the Democrats’ most effective talking points has lost its potency, leaving them with few appealing subjects to discuss on the campaign trail.
奥巴马认为有必要在一个主要宣布自己军事方面成功的演讲中提及糟糕的经济状况,证明民众对伊拉克和阿富汗的热情减弱这件事具有很甚远的政治意义。两场战争可能不会为民主党减少许多选票,但也不会像前两次选举那样侵蚀着共和党的支持率。民主党最有效的一个话题已然失效,现在他们在竞选中已没有什么具有感染力的话题来讨论了。
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