[2010.09.02]Wiggle room可调整的空间

sailor

Sovereign debt
主权债务
Wiggle room
可以调整的空间
The IMF offers indebted governments some reassurance
国际货币基金组织为负债累累的政府提供了一些定心丸。
Sep 2nd 2010
ONE consequence of the deepest recession since the Depression has been the biggest peacetime build-up of public debt the rich world has ever seen. Some reckon that the debt position of many rich countries is now unsustainable. It is a measure of just how nervous people have become about the mountain of debt that the IMF—not usually known for taking doveish views—concluded in two papers released on September 1st that there is too much pessimism about public finances.
大萧条以来最严重的衰退产生的一个后果是，富裕世界积累了和平时期最大规模的公共债务。一些人认为许多富裕国家的当前债务头寸难以为继。国际货币基金组织（IMF）在9月1日公布的两篇论文中总结表示人们对公共财政状况的看法过于悲观了，值得注意的是 IMF很少持这种鸽派观点，这表明人们对堆积如山的债务是多么的紧张不安。

The IMF argues that despite historically high debt-to-GDP ratios, many countries still have room for fiscal manoeuvre. Typically, the debate on the point at which a country’s debt burden spirals out of control has tried to identify a single debt-to-GDP threshold, above which things are no longer sustainable. The fund’s economists argue that a universal debt limit does not make sense.
IMF称，尽管债务与国内生产总值的比率创历史新高，但许多国家仍然还有财政调整的空间。通常，一个国家的债务负担超过转折点就会失去控制快速增加，关于该转折点的辩论会试图确定一个单项债务与国内生产总值比率的上线，高于这个上线的债务水平就是不可持续的。IMF的经济学家表示设立共同的债务限额没有意义。


That is because countries tend to respond to high debt ratios by cutting deficits but vary in their ability to do so. Each country will have a debt limit that is partly a function of its own history of fiscal consolidation. According to the IMF economists’ calculations, this theoretical limit is much higher, even for highly indebted countries like Britain and America, than their current or projected near-term debt ratios (see chart).
这是因为各国都倾向于通过削减赤字来应对高债务比率，但是它们削减赤字的能力却各不相同。每个国家都将拥有一个债务限额，这个债务限额部分是由其自身削减赤字和债务的政策历史决定的。根据IMF经济学家的计算，即便对于英国和美国这样债台高筑的国家，这个理论限额要比其当前或可预测的近期债务比率高得多。

The fund cautions that countries cannot afford to let debt build up until it reaches those levels. Rolling over their debt may become increasingly difficult well before the theoretical limit is reached, something to which Greece and others can testify. The fiscal positions of Britain or America may not yet be unsustainable, but they are not comfortable.
IMF警告说没有什么国家能够恣意让债务积累到限额水平而不承担后果。在远远未达到理论上的上线时，延期偿还其债务可能就越来越困难了，这一点从希腊以及其他国家的情况中就可以得到验证。虽然英国和美国的财政状况还可以维持，但是它们并不好过。

The fund also reckons that the risk that countries with onerous debt levels will inevitably default is also “significantly overestimated”. This finding is partly based on its analysis of 36 cases since 1991 where countries saw their bond spreads soar. In 29 of these episodes there was no eventual default. It also reckons that because the principal problem facing today’s highly indebted countries is not high interest payments but high primary budget deficits, restructuring debt would not help much anyway. Whether these arguments will count for anything with investors remains to be seen.
IMF还认为债务水平高的国家将必然拖欠债务的风险也被“大大高估”了。这项发现部分是以1991年以来的36个案例分析为基础的，在这些案例中，各国的债券利率差价暴涨。在这些事件中，有29起最终没有出现拖欠债务的情况。IMF还认为，由于如今负债累累的国家所面临的主要问题不是支付高利率，而是巨额的原发性预算赤字，因此调整债务结构不会有很大的裨益。这些辩论是否会对投资者产生影响仍然有待观察。

此篇为修改的终稿，是大家共同讨论的结晶，这里尤其要感谢yannanchen的详细解说！

valor

Some reckon that the debt position of many rich countries is now unsustainable
一些人认为许多富裕国家的目前债务水平是难以为继的
债务水平难以为继似乎有点不搭啊
试：一些人认为许多富裕国家的债务状况不会持续

—not usually known for taking doveish views
于是并非通常以持温和看法著称的国际货币基金组织（IMF）
通常并非以观点温和而著称……

a single debt-to-GDP threshold
单一的债务与国内生产总值比率
单项债务与国内生产总值比（率）阈值

The fund’s economists argue that a universal debt limit does not make sense
IMF的经济学家表示共同的债务上线没有意义
debt limit经济学，债务限额
IMF的经济学家认为（设定一个）通用债务限额毫无意义/没有意义

Each country will have a debt limit that is partly a function of its own history of fiscal consolidation
每个国家都将拥有一个债务上线，这个债务上线部分是其自身财政巩固过程的一种功能。
每个国家都将有个债务限额，其部分/在一定程度上取决于该国财政强化历史/其在一定程度上与该国财政强化历史相关
A function of  也有跟随……而变化的意思吧

this theoretical limit is much higher, even for highly indebted countries like Britain and America, than their current or projected near-term debt ratios (see chart).
这个理论上的上线要比其当前或可预测的近期债务比率高，像英国和美国等债台高筑的国家的情况也是如此。
即便对于英国和美国这样债台高筑的国家，这个理论限额也远远高于其……

The fund cautions that countries cannot afford to let debt build up until it reaches those levels.
IMF认为，各国的支付能力无法使债务积累到那个水平
试：IMF告诫说/警告说，各国无力偿还债务会最终导致债务累积到那个水平

It also reckons that because the principal problem facing today’s highly indebted countries is not high interest payments but high primary budget deficits
由于如今负债累累的国家所面临的主要问题不是支付高利率，
支付高利率 有点不搭吧  高利率利息/高利率付款

soulou

由于如今负债累累的国家所面临的主要问题不是支付高利率，而是巨额的初步预算赤字，调整债务结构不会有很大的裨益

两个句子是因果关系，个人觉得“调整”前加个“因而”或“所以”会比较通一些

还有restructuring debt
一般不说是“调整债务”，用“重组债务”多一些

sailor

回复 2# valor

谢谢你的细致点评，有些地方作了一些修改。
The fund cautions that countries cannot afford to let debt build up until it reaches those levels.
IMF认为，各国的支付能力无法使债务积累到那个水平
试：IMF告诫说/警告说，各国无力偿还债务会最终导致债务累积到那个水平
这里我的理解与你不同。Those levels是指理论债务限额，随后说Rolling over their debt may become increasingly difficult well before the theoretical limit is reached
因此各国的债务是不可能达到理论债务限额的。

sailor

回复 3# soulou

“调整经济结构”译为“restructuring economy”这里restructuring debt 我就套用，译为了“调整债务结构”，“重组债务”应该是“shore up debt”

valor

回复 5# sailor


    restructuring of debt,   restructuring debt 都有债务重组的意思

valor

回复 5# sailor


shore up 支持，支撑；加固，承托
sending a strong expeditionary force to check the Japanese advance and shore up the Korean king.派遣一支强大的远征部队来阻止日本人前进并扶持朝鲜国王。

valor

回复 4# sailor
The fund cautions that countries cannot afford to let debt build up until it reaches those levels.

个人对句子的字面直观理解是
在债务达到那个水平之前，各国免不了要累积债务
也就是说，各国债务会一直累积，直到达到那个水平

当然 一家之言 不一定对

soulou

回复 5# sailor


    词与词的单配是约定俗成，不单英语是这样，中文也是，套用的话理解上是没问题，但会让人觉得不地道。其实调整债务结构的意思就是重组债务，没什么区别的，只是前者听起来没后者给力啊

yannanchen

The IMF offers indebted governments some reassurance 原译：国际货币基金组织为负债累累的政府提供了一些保证。
评论： IMF只是出了一两篇论文而已， 不是保证， 而是提供了一些（两片）定心丸。