[2010.9.9]Don't starve thy neighbor不要让你的邻国挨饿

sailor

Agriculture
农业
Don't starve thy neighbor
不要让你的邻国挨饿
How to rebuild confidence in food markets after this summer’s spike in wheat prices
今夏小麦价格暴涨之后，该如何重建粮食市场的信心？
Sep 9th 2010
REGULARITY and repetition—of returning rains, of seasonal temperatures, of the cycles of life and death—are the essence of agriculture. So perhaps it is not surprising when events recur. In 2007-08, food prices soared. Mozambique and 30 poor countries endured food-price riots. Russia led a procession of grain exporters to restrict sales. And the world had to face up to changes in the pattern of food demand, reversing decades of declining real prices. It was the end of cheap food.
再次来临的大雨、季节性温度以及生死轮回的规律性和重复性是农业的本质。因此，或许这类事情再次发生并不足为奇。在2007年到2008年期间，粮食价格暴涨。莫桑比克和30个穷国遭受了粮食价格暴乱。俄罗斯领导一系列粮食出口国限制出口。世界各国不得不面临粮食需求方式的变革，扭转数十年来粮食实际价格下降的趋势。廉价粮食就寿终正寝了。

This summer, world wheat prices have spiked again (see article). Mozambique has been rocked by food riots. And Russia has banned wheat exports for the second time in three years. Is the world facing a new food-price upheaval?
今年夏天，世界小麦价格再次暴涨。莫桑比克一直饱受粮食暴乱。而俄罗斯在3年内第二次禁止玉米出口。世界正在面临粮食价格新剧变吗？

Not really. This is not Food Crisis 2.0. In 2007-08 prices rose across the board for months; this summer, the rise has been confined to a few commodities (notably wheat); average food prices are only slightly above where they were at the start of the year. In 2007-08 grain stocks were at their lowest relative to output for 30 years; now they are back to normal. Mozambique’s upheavals have little to do with recent price rises (see article). And unlike in 2007-08, this summer has not seen another fundamental shift in the balance of supply and demand. The 2010 world wheat harvest is the third largest of all time. Rather, the summer has seen a supply shock of the sort that food markets are supposed to be able to absorb without fuss.
其实不然。这不是粮食危机的再现。2007到2008年期间，所有产品的价格上涨了几个月，今年夏天，涨价的产品一直仅限于几件产品（主要是玉米），粮食的平均价格只比年初涨了一点点。2007年到2008年期间，粮食储备相对于产量处在之前30年的最低点，现在它们恢复到了正常水平。莫桑比克的剧变与最近的价格上涨几乎没有什么关系。与2007年到2008期间的情况不同，今年夏天，供求关系平衡并没有发生变化。迄今为止，2010年的世界小麦收成位居第三。准确地说，今年夏天经历了一轮供应的冲击，而粮食市场本应该能够承受这类冲击，不造成混乱的。

And there lies the problem. Harvest failure in a country with just 8% of the world’s wheat has produced embargoes and panic buying. What are importers to make of that? For some the answer seems to be obvious: don’t trust markets; grow it yourself; food security begins at home.
问题就在这。一个只占到世界小麦总量8%的国家收成不佳就会导致禁运和购买恐慌。进口国用什么来理解这种情况呢？对于一些进口国来说，答案似乎显而易见：不要相信市场，自己种植，实现粮食安全从自己国家做起。

This is deeply depressing. Self-sufficiency is inefficient and shallow markets are more volatile than deep ones. And it will get worse. On the current best guesses of scientists, climate change is likely to produce more events like the heatwave in Russia. These will disrupt harvests and make prices more volatile still. And climate change will probably shift patterns of production; some marginal land will become infertile; land now barren will come into production; some countries will import more, others export more. Retreating into self-sufficiency just when production may be reshaped is a starve-thy-neighbour policy.
这非常令人沮丧。自给自足是不够的，浅显的市场比深层的市场波动性更大。并且这种情况将恶化。目前，科学家最乐观的猜测是，气候变化可能产生更多像俄罗斯“热浪”的事件。这些事件将扰乱丰收并会使价格更加剧烈波动。此外，气候变化可能会转变生产方式，一些面积较小的土地将会变得贫瘠，目前贫瘠的土地将会投入生产，一些国家将增加进口，同时其他国家会增加出口。在产量可能被重塑之际，重新采取自给自足的政策是让邻国挨饿。

The best way for countries to adjust to the shocks and disruption would be for markets to become deeper and more resilient. Instead, they are getting shallower and more vulnerable. Reversing this trend is in everybody’s interest. But how?
增加市场的深度和恢复力是各国适应冲击和扰乱的最好方法。反之，市场就会更加浅显，更加不堪一击。扭转这种趋势符合每个国家的利益。但是该怎么做呢？

Three impossible things before breakfast
吃早饭之前完成三件不可思议的事

First, America, Europe and Japan should reduce farm protectionism, because that will mean more food is traded across borders. This argument has been made before (and to some effect: reform has happened, albeit not enough). Climate change and distorted markets make it more compelling.
首先，美国、欧洲和日本应该减少农产品保护主义，因为这将意味着增加跨境粮食的交易量。这一点以前提出过（并且一定程度上：发生了变革，尽管还不够）。气候变化和扭曲的市场使这个论点更加具有说服力。

Next, food trade needs some insurance against export bans. This may sound impossible, because agriculture has been the great stumbling block of the World Trade Organisation. But the North America Free Trade Agreement allows export restrictions to incur penalties. The WTO should do the same. Importers have legitimate interests, too.
其次，粮食贸易需要一些反对出口禁令的保障。这可能听起来不可思议，因为农业一直是世界贸易组织最大的绊脚石。但是北美自由贸易协定可以对实施出口限制的国家进行惩罚。同样，世界贸易组织也应该这样做。进口国也有合法利益。

Third, the world would benefit from a global system of food stocks. These would give importing countries confidence that supplies will always be for sale when prices spike, calming panic buying and reducing pressure to retreat into self-sufficiency. John Maynard Keynes proposed something similar after the second world war. The idea remains a good one. And though there are practical difficulties, such as who would control the sale of stocks and when, these are not insuperable. The UN’s World Food Programme could run such a system.
最后，世界将从粮食储备的全球体系中受益。这将为进口国家提供信心，在价格暴涨时，供应商就会降价出售，平息购买恐慌，减小重新实施自给自足政策的压力。二战之后，约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯提出了类似的想法。这个想法仍然很好。此外，尽管在实际操作中存在困难，如谁来控制储备的销售以及何时进行销售，但这些困难并不是难以克服的。联合国世界粮食计划可以管理这个体制。

Food markets are often treated with suspicion by farmers, environmentalists and governments alike. This is short sighted. A billion people are already hungry and the job of feeding the world is getting harder. More food requires more investment, but investors need large commercial farms to invest in, and they need global markets. Such markets are not optional to the job of feeding humanity. They are integral to it. They need help to work better.
粮食市场经常遭到农民、环保人士和政府的质疑。这是目光短浅的表现。已经有10亿人在挨饿，养活世界的工作越来越困难。增加粮食需要增加投资，但是投资者需要有大片的商业农田进行投资，还需要全球市场。这样的市场并不是养活人类工作中可有可无的，而是必不可少的，并且需要获得帮助才能更好的运作。

singleman

标题加上日期啊

clay_686

嘿嘿  我也翻了这篇   互相学习一下  去看看我翻的怎么样
1，wheat好像是小麦吧   不应该译成玉米
2   shallow market  我译成了小市场  你觉得怎么样
3  这句“扭转这种趋势符合每个国家的利益”比我译的好多了

routuanzi

Three impossible things before breakfast
吃早饭之前完成三件不可思议的事
总觉得这样翻译好牵强，我觉得这句话应该在说那些国家要过上饱食的日子而要做些什么的意思吧。
不太好翻译

clay_686

回复 4# routuanzi


    恩  这样理解很好

kimlau

音频呢