The new proposals are designed more for political than economic impact
新的提案更多是为了政治影响，而非经济发展
Sep 9th 2010 | WASHINGTON, DC
BUSINESS groups and Republicans have pummelled Barack Obama of late as a populist demagogue whose policies have failed to stimulate growth while blanketing companies with stifling uncertainty about taxes and regulation. This week Mr Obama unveiled a trio of proposals that look to have been designed less to power up the economy than to parry such attacks.
最近，企业集团和共和党都严厉抨击奥巴马作为一个民粹主义的蛊惑人心的政治家并没有通过其正常刺激经济增长，相反，他让各大公司笼罩在关于税收和规章的令人窒息的不确定性中。这一周，奥巴马提出了一揽子经济提案。这些提案看起来更像是为了抵挡当下的抨击，而不是为了刺激经济。
The boldest proposal would let businesses deduct the full cost of investment against their taxes next year instead of over three or more years. This would encourage them to bring forward their investment plans to 2011. The impact, however, will be muted by low interest rates (which diminish the value of an early tax refund) and the fact that businesses are much more worried about weak demand than their cost of capital. Still, Kevin Hassett, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, thinks this could boost investment by 5% to 10%.
最大胆的提案是让企业在投资第二年，而不是之后的三年或者更久，从税收中扣除全额投资成本。这一提案会鼓励企业提出他们在2011年的投资计划。然而，这一提案的效果会因为低利率而打折扣（低利率会减少之前退税的价值），而事实上，企业更担心的是需求疲软，而不是他们的成本。不过，保守党派的美国企业研究所的凯文·哈西特表示，这一提案会拉动5%到10%的投资。
Another proposal would make a tax credit for research and development permanent. Mr Obama has called for this before; he now also proposes to make it slightly more generous, raising it from 14 cents to 17 cents per dollar of qualifying R&D. The credit expired last year, as it often does, a victim of Congress’ unwillingness to account for its long-term cost. Still, since businesses assume the credit will always be renewed (albeit retroactively), they are unlikely to spend more if proven right.
另一项提案是为研发制定固定的税收减免方案。奥巴马之前就提过这一想法，现在则以更慷慨的方式出现在他的提案里：在每一美元符合条件的研发中，从原来的减免14美分到现在减免17美分。就像往常一样，去年到期的税收减免，成为了国会不愿意为其长期成本负责的牺牲品。然而，若被证明是对的，那么因为企业认为税收减免会一直不停续期（虽然是追溯性的），他们就不大可能支出更多的资金。
Mr Obama also renewed his call for a new six-year transport bill, while proposing that $50 billion be spent right away rebuilding 150,000 miles of roads, 4,000 miles of rail and 150 miles of runway. The president wants to depoliticise such spending by funnelling it through a federal “infrastructure bank”, though Clifford Winston of the Brookings Institution fears this would be just as politicised.
奥巴马也重申了一项新的六年运输法案，并提出花费500亿美元重建15万英里的公路，4000英里的铁路和150英里的飞机跑道。总统希望通过将这笔钱注入“基础建设银行”而使得这笔花销不那么政治化，但是布鲁金斯学会的克利福德·温斯顿却担心这样一来，这笔花费反而政治化了。
Mr Obama faces a delicate marketing job. His approval ratings on the economy have tanked but voters are alarmed about the deficit and convinced, unfairly, that his previous fiscal stimulus didn’t help (see chart). In a speech on September 8th in Parma, Ohio Mr Obama avoided the word stimulus and instead labelled the proposals as “additional steps to grow the economy”. They are also designed to minimise the hit to the deficit. The investment tax credit could cost $200 billion in the first two years but just $30 billion over ten years since businesses will have less to deduct later on. Making the R&D credit permanent would cost $100 billion over ten years but this is only $30 billion more than if the credit were simply renewed every year. That, as well as the $50 billion to be spent on infrastructure, would be paid for by eliminating tax breaks for multinationals and oil and gas companies.
奥巴马面临着一个微妙的营销工作。他在经济上的支持率已跌至谷底，而选民们对于赤字情况也很惊醒，于是不公地认为他之前的财政刺激计划并未奏效（见表）。9月8号，在俄亥俄州的巴尔马，奥巴马小心避过了“激励措施”这个词，为他的提案贴上了“经济增长的额外步骤”的标签。将对赤字的冲击降到最低也是这些提案的目的之一。在头两年，投资税收抵免会花费2000亿美元，但是在之后十年只需花费300亿美元，因为随后企业需要扣除的部分将会减少。固定的研发减免计划在十年内将会花费1000亿美元，但是比简单地每年续期减免只多了300亿美元。这些钱，连同花费在基础建设上的500亿美元，将通过取消跨国公司及油气公司的税收优惠而筹得。
These proposals represent more complicating of a tax system already crying out for comprehensive overhaul. And they are unlikely to be approved anyway, given the limited time Congress has before the mid-term elections and the Republicans’ reluctance to hand Mr Obama a victory, especially one that raises taxes, even on multinationals.
这些提案代表了一个更为复杂的税收制度，而如今的制度已然不堪，急需全面检修。但是鉴于在中期选举之前国会拥有的时间有限，以及共和党不愿意把胜利交付于奥巴马，这个即便只是对跨国公司提高税收的总统，这些提案很可能不会通过。
But politically they have served Mr Obama’s purpose, giving him some tax-cutting credentials at a time when Republicans are accusing him of proposing to wreck the economy by letting George Bush’s tax cuts for the rich expire in December. Mr Hassett praises the investment tax credit as “quite radically different” from Mr Obama’s previous stimulus. Even John Boehner, the Republicans’ leader in the House of Representatives, grudgingly conceded, “These aren’t necessarily bad proposals.” Reminded that Republicans have put many of these same ideas forward before, Mr Obama’s press secretary quipped, “Well, then we ought to be able to get this done pretty quickly.” No one thought he was serious.
但是从政治上说，这些提案达到了奥巴马的目的。共和党人士指责奥巴马通过将乔治·布什为富人减税的方案截止于十二月的做法来危害经济，而这些提案让他在此时得到了一些减税凭证。哈西特先生表扬投资税收减免计划与奥巴马之前的刺激措施“完全与众不同”。即便是众议院共和党领导人约翰·博纳也不情愿地承认道“这些提案不一定是坏事。”还记得共和党之前提出过许多相似想法，奥巴马的新闻秘书调侃道“好吧，那我们得让这些赶快实行才是。”没有人觉得他说的是真话。
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