[2012.01.13]Natural disasters 自然灾害

migmig

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Natural disasters
自然灾害

Jan 13th 2012, 15:31 by The Economist online

The costliest natural disasters since 1980
自1980年以来代价代价最为昂贵的自然灾害

THE world has succeeded in making natural disasters less deadly. Annual death tolls are heavily influenced by outliers, such as Haiti’s earthquake in 2010 (which killed more than 200,000) or the Bangladeshi cyclones in 1970 (300,000). But, adjusted for the Earth’s growing population, the trend in death rates is clearly downward. Economic costs, though, are rising as people and industrial activity cluster in disaster-prone areas such as river deltas and earthquake fault lines. The world’s industrial supply chains were only just recovering from Japan’s earthquake and tsunami in March when a natural disaster severed them again in October. The deluge in Thailand cost $40 billion, the most expensive disaster in the country’s history. J.P. Morgan estimates that it set back global industrial production by 2.5%. Five of the ten costliest, in terms of money rather than lives, were in the past four years. Munich Re, a reinsurer, reckons their economic costs were $378 billion last year, breaking the previous record of $262 billion in 2005 (in constant 2011 dollars). Besides the Japanese and Thai calamities, New Zealand suffered an earthquake, Australia and China floods, and America a cocktail of hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires and floods. Barack Obama issued a record 99 “major disaster declarations” in 2011.

世界在减轻自然灾害致命性方面有所进步。年度死亡人数受地球极端自然灾害的影响很大，比如2010年海地地震（超过20万人丧生），或者1970年孟加拉飓风。不过，考虑到地球人口在不断增加，死亡率明显呈下滑趋势。但是，由于人类和工业活动集中在如河流三角洲或地震断层等更容易发生灾害的地区，经济损失有增无减。世界产业供应链刚刚从日本三月份的地震和海啸中回复，十月份一次自然灾害就再次加重了这一问题。泰国洪水造成400亿美元损失，是该国史上代价最为高昂的灾害。J.P.摩根公司估计自然灾害导致全球工业产量下滑2.5个百分点。以金钱而非生命形式衡量的10次代价最为高昂自然灾害，5次发生在过去的4年中。Munich Re保险公司估计去年全球经济损失达3780亿美元，打破了2005年2620亿美元的纪录（以2011年美元为常量）。除了日本和泰国的灾难，新西兰发生了地震，澳大利亚和中国发生了洪灾，美国遭遇飓风、龙卷风、野火和洪水的共同袭击。2011年，巴拉克·奥巴马发布了创纪录的99个“大灾声明”。

contrary

Annual death tolls are heavily influenced by outliers
年度死亡人数受地球离层的影响很大
outliers有异常值/离群值的意思，可能是指极端异常的自然灾害

But, adjusted for the Earth’s growing population, the trend in death rates is clearly downward.
不过，考虑到地球不断增加的人口，死亡率的趋势明显下降了。
不过，考虑到地球的人口在不断增加，死亡率明显呈下降趋势。

Economic costs, though, are rising as people and industrial activity cluster in disaster-prone areas such as river deltas and earthquake fault lines.
由于人类和工业活动集中在有灾害倾向的地区——如河流三角洲或地震断层，经济损失在增加。
由于人类和工业活动集中在如河流三角洲或地震断层等更容易发生灾害的地区，经济损失有增无减。

madaozhizhan

人类应该把精力多用在应对自然灾难和保护环境上，别总是打打杀杀的！

winter_gates

madaozhizhan 发表于 2012-1-23 15:16
人类应该把精力多用在应对自然灾难和保护环境上，别总是打打杀杀的！

科技的进步一般都是战争导致的，而不是灾害。

johnsonsz

已读 谢谢哈

dylanlo

Munich Re, a reinsurer
慕尼黑再保险公司